Intelligence Protocols
CEO Leadership Scoring Methodology (1-10)
| Factor | Weight | Scoring | |--------|--------|---------| | Tenure | +1 for 3-10yr, +0.5 for 5-15yr, -0.5 for 20yr+ | Stability vs stagnation | | Track Record | +0.5 per growth keyword, -1 for decline | Revenue growth, stock performance | | Education | +0.5 for top MBA/PhD | Harvard, Stanford, Wharton, doctorate | | Achievements | +0.3 per achievement (max 1.5) | Notable launches, exits, awards | | Risk Factors | -0.5 per risk (max -2) | Controversies, lawsuits, concerns | | Experience | +0.5 for 2+ prior exec roles | Breadth of C-suite experience |
Baseline: 5/10. Range: 1-10. Score >= 7 = strong leader. Score <= 3 = caution.
Market Trend Pattern Classification
| Pattern | Detection | Significance | |---------|-----------|-------------| | SECTOR_ROTATION | Same sector mentioned 30%+ of days | Capital flowing into that sector | | VOLUME_MOMENTUM | 3+ consecutive high-volume days | Strong institutional activity | | PM_STOCK_DIVERGENCE | Prediction markets vs stocks disagree | One market may be ahead | | SEASONAL | Same pattern at same time of year | Calendar-driven opportunity |
Minimum data: 5 days for any pattern. 30 days for high-confidence patterns.
Bill-to-Investment Pipeline
Bill Identified → Sector Classification → Contractor Research → Public Trading Check → Signal GenerationSignal urgency by contract value:
- > $1B: HIGH urgency
- $100M-$1B: MEDIUM urgency
- < $100M: LOW urgency
Signal confidence boosters:
- Company is the sole or dominant contractor in the sector
- Bill has bipartisan support (more likely to pass)
- Historical pattern: similar bills led to stock moves
- Company hasn't moved yet (early signal)
World Events Severity Classification
| Severity | Criteria | Market Response | |----------|----------|----------------| | CRITICAL | War, financial crisis, pandemic, collapse | Immediate sector-wide impact | | HIGH | Major policy change, sanctions, natural disaster | Sector-specific within days | | MEDIUM | Regulatory shift, trade agreement, tech breakthrough | Gradual sector rotation | | LOW | Cultural event, minor policy, industry update | Minimal direct market impact |
Compound Signal Scoring Formula
confidence = base_score + source_diversity + recency_boost- base_score: min(independent_sources / 4, 0.5) — more sources = higher base
- source_diversity: unique_source_types × 0.1 — different types matter more
- recency_boost: recent_sources (< 7 days) × 0.05
- cap: 1.0 maximum
Minimum thresholds:
- confidence >= 0.6 for actionable signals
- confidence >= 0.5 for "watch" signals
- confidence < 0.5 = research only, do not act
Data Quality Requirements
- Every data point needs at least 1 named source
- CEO profiles need 3+ independent searches
- Bill signals need contractor + public trading confirmation
- World events need severity classification
- Patterns need 5+ days of supporting data
- All intelligence is advisory — not financial advice